CPI Commentary

Headline CPI rose 0.9% m/m and 3.3% y/y in March, driven primarily by an energy shock tied to the Iran conflict.  Core CPI, however, increased just 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y, indicating that underlying inflation pressures remained relatively contained despite the surge in gasoline prices.

Headline CPI rose 0.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y in February, while core CPI increased 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y.

Headline CPI rose 0.2% m/m (vs. 0.3% expected) and 2.4% y/y (vs. 2.5% expected) in January, marking the lowest annual rate since May 2025. Core CPI increased 0.3% m/m, in line with expectations, while holding at 2.5% y/y.

Headline CPI rose 0.3% m/m in December, while core CPI increased 0.2% m/m, each printing 10bps below consensus expectations. The December report helps clarify prior data distortions stemming from last fall’s government shutdown and provides a cleaner signal that inflation pressures continued to ease as 2025 drew to a close.

Headline CPI rose 2.7% y/y in November, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 2.6% y/y, marking the slowest pace of core inflaon since early 2021. Both measures undershot market expectations and reinforced Fed’s recent focus on the labor market fragility.

Headline CPI rose 0.3% m/m in September—down from +0.4% in August and in lower than analyst expectations. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 0.2% m/m, also below forecasts, and down from +0.3% in August.